INTRADAY TIPS FOR OCTOBER 29-10-2012 MONDAY

SCRIP

ACTION

TRIGGER

TARGET 1

TARGET 2

STOPLOS

ALLCARGO

BUY

131.50

133.25

136.00

130.00

IDFC

BUY

157.00

158.50

160.60

155.50

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

SHORT TERM BUY - JAIN IRRIGATION , MAN INDUSTRIES


Jain Irrigation Systems
BSE: 500219     NSE: JISLJALEQS  CMP : 171.00.  Buy jain irrigation at 170.00 levels for a short term target of 185.00 with stoploss of 163.50
Man industries
BSE: 513269    NSE: MANINDS  CMP : 124.00.  Buy man industreis at 124.00 and below levels for a short term target of 136.00 with a stoploss of 119.00

STOCKS IN NEWS

SRS Ltd IPO gets astounding response from HNIs whereas TD Power from QIBs. This has really surprised primary market operators.
· Willard has taken more than 17 months for its demerger process after delisting for the said purpose and is thus setting a bad example.
· Bonus bounty fails to lift Nitin Fire. However, investment brokers are considering it as a safe medium term bet.
· Big bull and few MF analysts are projecting a level of 14.5K for Sensex and 4.2K for Nifty. Would you like to bet on this?
· Kitex Garment is worth considering for medium term at declined level, opine punters from South.
· Informed quarters are expecting RIL to take lead for boom from first week of September after getting liquidity from BP deal.
· With recent volatile games on new listing, investors are urging for a circuit limit of 20% for debut day and looking at SEBI for its action.
· Himalaya Intl is a safe medium term bet, opine Delhi bulls. The Company is reportedly faring well.
· While other plantation companies are doing well, Manjushri Plantation is disappointing one and all.
· Informed quarters are advising to go long on the counter of Shriram Urban Infra. The company is set to announce improved performance.

STRONG BUY - RAMA PHOSPHATE

Highly Undervalued Fertilizer Scrip
Rama Phosphate Ltd.
BSE Code : 524037      CMP :  44.00
Mumbai based Rama Phosphate Ltd is engaged in production of Single Super Phosphate fertilizer (SSP). Until 2009, RPL had been making losses and had become BIFR case. Last year, company had succeeded
in implementing CDR Package wherein promoters brought in fresh equity. Now, company has made a strong
turnaround in its operations. Last year, its share price had touched Rs 147/. Due to bad market, scrip has crashed excessively. Current market cap is just 78 crores as against sales of nearly 400 crores and scrip is availableat 2.40xFY12E Eps. Book Value is already Rs 53 which should rise to Rs 70 as on 31st March
2012. For FY10, RPL had reported Loss of 1.67 crores on sales of 186.22 crores. However, after write-back of 20.51 crores, there was Net Profit of 18.83 crores.
On equity of 5.56 crores, Eps was 33.90 For FY11, Company reported HUGE improvement in its performance with sales almost doubling to 356.98 crores. Net Profit stands at 34.53 crores. Due to writeback of 5.01 crores, Net profit stood at 39.55 crores. Eps Rs 22.35 on enhanced equity of 17.69
crores. RPL is likely to further improve its performance in current year. For quarter ended June 2011, Its sales are 109.35 crores and Profit after Tax 10.82 crores, translating into Eps of 6.12 For FY12, RPL can achieve sales of Rs 390-400 crores with Profit after tax of Rs 32.50 crores (tax provision likely to be higher in current year and extraordinary income ). Eps for FY12 is estimated to be Rs 18.37 RPL is trading at 2xFY11 Eps and 2.40xFY12E Eps. Scrip is also available at 0.62xFY12E Book Value . Scrip is available at such tempting valuations mainly due to bad market sentiment. Share price has almost bottomed
out. Buying recommended as scrip can appreciate more than 50% in next few months. If broader markets bounce back, scrip can provide more 100% appreciation in15 months if markets dont fall heavily from current levels.

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST 30 - TUESDAY

Indian share market witnessed the rocket rally on Monday after four days sell offs. The 50 Shares Nifty- Fifty Index gained more than 3.5% on the back of gain in Reliance Industries (up 5.07%) Infosys (up 3.8%), L&T (up 5.4%) and other market giants. It closed at 4954.90 after adding 171.80 points to its previous level.
Nifty Futures on the other hand settled down at 4939.55 up by 190.85 with a gain of 4%.
Now the coming sessions are seems to be give some healthy trades to the market and Nifty futures may continue this momentum if it trades above 4975 mark tomorrow. On the downside, breaching 4872 may harm the bullish view and Nifty even slip down to 4800 mark again.

Intraday Nifty Tips: Buy above 4975 for the targets of 5000-5035-55 Stop-loss below 4918.
If market turns reverse go for sell below 4909.

Monday, August 29, 2011

LONG TERM BUY - NELCAST

After scanning through hundreds of stocks out there I came across Nelcast as a company which is doing pretty well and more importantly it’s stock price has escaped the bear hammering to a very large extent – if we just look at last 3 month’s stock price of Nelcast you will know what I am talking about.

1.Nelcast Ltd share price on June 1, 2011 Rs.98.25/share
2.Nelcast Ltd share price on June 26, 2011 Rs.109/share

It may be noted that in the last 3 months the share price did not go below Rs.94.50. Wow! Blue-chips are sliding downhill but not Nelcast. That’s what I call a stocks power to withstand the recent bourse-shattering quakes – not exactly an anti-bear stock but indeed a stock that could bravely fight the bears without being brutally bruised.

Nelcast having a market capitalization of Rs.188 crores is one of the largest producers of Spheroidal Graphite (SG) iron castings in India. As a world class automotive castings manufacturer it has 200 different types of castings in its repertoire. The major automotive components it manufactures are Cylindrical Blocks, Flywheels, Hubs, Transmission Case, Axle Housings etc. It also manufactures insets required for concrete sleepers used by railways. The other non-automotive products manufactured are pipe fittings used in various industries.

Nelcast Limited has two plants – one in Guidur, Andhra Pradesh and one in Ponneri, Tamil Nadu, total installed capacity being around 150000 M.T. per annum. Ponneri factory has a state-of-the-art machine shop and a Kunkel Wagner automatic high pressure moulding line, making it one of the first foundries in India to have fully automatic moulding technology. This provides castings with improved dimensional accuracy, surface finish and soundness

Rising labour costs and environmental concerns have forced foundries in developed countries to move production to countries like India and China. Consequently leading players like Nelcast will be presented with recurring opportunities to export their products to developed countries.

The company currently boasts of marquee clients like Tata Motors, TAFE, Mahindra & Mahindra and Eicher. Major export customer are Arvin Meritor (Sweden) & Dobbie Dico (Australia).

During the year, the Company recorded Net Sales of Rs.507.40 crores as against Rs.319.61 crores in 2009-10 registering a growth of 59%. Profit Before Tax (excluding extra-ordinary items) increased to Rs. 20.43 crores during the year 2010-11 from Rs. 9.99 crores in 2009-10 representing an increase of 104%. Even the recent Q1FY12 results were pretty good – total revenues increased by 64 per cent to Rs.156 crores as compared to Rs.95 crores in Q1FY10. Net Profit increased by an astounding 277.8 per cent to Rs.7.86 crores as compared to Rs.2.08 crores in Q1FY10.

During the year FY2011, the company has made a substantial profit after tax of Rs. 75.09 Cr due to sale of shares held in Nelcast Energy Corporation Ltd. This extra-ordinary item has helped the Company to increase its net worth substantially.

The company’s share capital stood at Rs.17.40 crores on which it does business a tad above Rs.500 crores and it has reserves of over 10 times its share capital. The company was sitting on a nice pile of cash balance of Rs.52 crores as at end fiscal 2010-11. The company’s ROE and ROCE is a tad above 46 pc! The company’s leverage is low at 0.50 and as such there is enough scope to fund its capex plans at the appropriate time. Company’s promoters have great confidence in their ability to take the company to greater heights as is evidenced by their high stake in the company to the tune of 72.07 per cent.

Going forward and looking to its past track record it would not be unreasonable to expect Nelcast to continue maintaining margins in the range of 12-13% due to improving product-mix , higher realizations & margins on machined castings coupled with ability to pass on rise in input costs to customers, albeit with a lag.

The company has very ambitious plans to increase its capacity to 2,50,000 tonnes and become the largest foundaries in the world. All seems to be well and hopefully all will be well with Nelcast.
( source: multibagger )

STOCKS IN NEWS FOR THIS WEEK

* Ansal Housing, which reported a net profit of Rs.11 crore for Q1FY12, is available grossly cheap at the current market
cap of Rs.70 crore. Its risk:reward is favourable as all the negatives seems to have been factored in the CMP.


* At market price of Rs.105, Atul Auto can be bought for handsome gains for two years. It’s a dark horse says a market
veteran.


* Although Escorts Ltd. posted a dismissal performance for the June 2011 quarter, long-term investors should start
accumulating the scrip at sharp declines. At a market cap of less than Rs.750 crore, its worth betting on.


* Voltas Ltd, a Tata Group company, has once again come down to tempting levels. It may find strong support at sub
Rs.100 level when investors can safely buy. Keep a close watch.


* Sutlej Textiles, which came out with a robust Q1FY12 results and is expected to post an EPS of Rs.75 for FY12. The
share can be grabbed with a target price of Rs.250.


* Polyplex Corporation is all set to post an EPS of Rs.90-100 in FY12. Expansion will push up its EPS further in FY13.
With a P/E multiple of less than 2, the share is going cheap.


* Diamond Power Infra is expected to garner an EPS of Rs.30 in FY12. The share is a good long-term buy.


* Some analysts strongly recommend the shares of IFB Agro, which is likely to post an EPS of Rs.40 in FY12. The share is
poised to touch the Rs.200 mark.


* Phillips Carbon Black, which posted an EPS of Rs.13 in Q1FY12, is expected to register an EPS of Rs.50 for FY12. The
share is poised to touch the Rs.180 mark in the medium-term

Friday, August 26, 2011

SHORT TERM BUY CALL - CERA SANITARY

Cera Sanitaryware

BSE: 532443   NSE: CERA    CMP : 199.35   Buy cera sanitary around 199.00 and below levels for a very short term target of  215.50 with a stoploss of 193.00

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST 26 FRIDAY

Despite of positive global cues, Indian market once again dropped around 1%. Following the cues the market started well in the initial hours of the session but drifted lower in the last leg of trade due to F&O expiry. Nifty Swung  between 4915 and 4827 (High and low of the day) and finally closed at 4840 down by 49%. 
 Nifty Futures Shut its shop at 4888.90 down by -60 points or -1.21 %. Now it is taking support at 4800 level below which the terrible downfall seen till date in this month may continue. Technically 4912 would be required for a better up move.
Support for Nifty is in 4800-4665 zone whereas resistance levels are 4912-4975. Day Traders should take any position only if substantial move is seen in the market.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

MULTIBAGGER STOCK RECOMMENDATION - PITTI LAMINATIONS

Pitti Laminations

BSE: 513519    NSE: PITTILAM  CMP: 40.00
Pitti Laminations Ltd started production in 1987. It is located in Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India and its factories are located in a 50KM radius of the city. Pitti Laminations Limited was the first in the country in lamination industry to have achieved ISO 9002 certification by BVQI of U.K. in October 1993.
The company is engaged in the manufacturing of electrical laminations for use in all types of motors for a wide spectrum of applications, alternators, DC machines, railway lighting alternators etc. They make single piece laminations upto 1300 mm (51 inches) diameter.
Laminations upto 700 mm (27 inches) diameter by single blow (gang punching) operation and upto 1300 mm (51 inches) diameter by single point notching including skip notching.They are located in Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India. Their factories are located in a 50KM radius of the city.
Plant - I   of the company is having capacity of 6000 Tons per annum in operation while Plant – II of the company is of  capacity 4000 Tons per annum and is dedicated to the export market.
The plant – II is equipped with high Speed Presses, Presses from 100 to 350 Tons capacity, Hydraulic Presses from 40 – 150 Tons capacity and additional tool room machinery.
The company manufactures electrical laminations up to a diameter of 1300 mm (51”) for application in industrial motors, DC machines, alternators, traction motors, pumps, train lighting generators, aeronautics, medical diagnostics equipments, windmill generators, laminations for specialised applications, die-cast rotors, assembled stators and built-up rotors duly balanced. It produces small laminations via High Speed Press for compressors.
The company also manufactures Press tools, Progressive tools Jigs, Fixtures to customer requirements. 

  Pitti Laminations, which is a very small cap company. On today’s market capitalization, Pitti Laminations would be close to Rs 36-37 crore of market cap and my understanding is that the current financial year the company should post an EBITDA of more than Rs 50 crore.
If someone just reads the annual report for Pitti Laminations for 2010-11, the company very surprisingly has made a forward projection. They have actually mentioned what they expect to earn in the current year and the next financial year. If you take these numbers as gospel truth, then you will easily arrive at the conclusion that the company is significantly underpriced. The company expects to earn a profit after tax (PAT) of somewhere around Rs 19 crore for current year and a pre tax profit of somewhere around Rs 28 crore. They have actually given a projection that in the next financial year, that is 2011-12, they expect to earn Rs 26 crore post tax and Rs 38 crore of pre tax..buy around current levels and on dips for  this sureshot multibagger.

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST - 25 THURSDAY

After two positive sessions markets witnessed again a choppy trend. Nifty continued selling pressure from resistance near 4,950 levels and closed in red with significant loss. Nifty August future expiry due on Thursday therefore volatile movement may be seen in coming trading sessions. Market sentiments may remain weak below 4,950 levels. Nifty is likely to continue trade in 4,800-4,980 zones for next trading.

For intraday tomorrow, the trend deciding level is at 4,900. If Nifty shows strength above this levels, then rally to 4,950-4,980-5,025 may be seen. On the downside if Nifty fails to show strength above 4,900 levels then selling pressure till 4,850-4,815 may also be seen.


Wednesday, August 24, 2011

HIGH RISK -HIGH RETURN SHARES

Karuturi Global (Rs. 7.65)
(Code: 531687)
Karuturi Global one of the largest horticulture company growing roses has decided to invest USD 50 millon in Tanzania in order to grow and process some grain. The company has also chalked out a plan to acquire much of land on lease for cultivation of Palm and sugar cane. The price of this share may flare up following this development.
 
McNally Bharat (Rs. 124.00)
(Code: 532629) 
McNally Bharat is generally known as a mini Larsen & Tubro which has chalked out an overseas expansion plan beside its subsidiary company is also going to be listed very soon. The price of the may move up following this news. 
Idea Cellular (Rs. 93.00)
(Code: 532822) :
Idea Cellular is providing telecom service across the country. The AXIATA, the investment company, has very recently acquired 0.9 % stake from open market for the consideration of Rs. 307 crore in order to increase its stake up to 5.91 %. This development indicates some positive development.
 
Spice Jet (Rs. 23.80)
(Code:
500285) : Market envisages the possibility that most of the aviation share may be in limelight following
decline price of crude oil in international market bu surprisingly the price of this share has tumbled thanks to
heavy selling pressure from Goldman Sache and G.S. Investment. Both these investors had sold off 25 lakh
shares together.
K.S. Oil (Rs. 10.40
(Code:526209) 
Most of the investors were on buying spree for this share two weeks ago as Nomuro, the overseas brokerage company, has awarded “BUY” rating for this share and the price was moved up to Rs. 18 but surprisingly the price was crashed last week following one of the financer of the company has sold of all the share pledge with him by the promoters and the price was tanked 48 % to Rs. 8.50. The all time highest price was recorded at
Rs. 63.
Escort (Rs. 70.00) 
It is very strong possibility that the demand of its various tractors would increase in rural India following better monsoon rain across the country. It has been heard from the street that the Reliance Mutual Fund has recently purchase 5 lakh shares of this company.

Educomp (Rs. 221.00)
(Code: 532696) 
The price of this share too crashed 9 % following search and raid operation conducted by Income Tax department. Investors must not make any position at this time as the pcie may further plunge.

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST - 24 WEDNEESDAY

CNX Midcap index was up today: 24 august 2011, 1.18 % about and S&P CNX 500 gained about 1.01% while BSE small cap index and Midcap also gained at 1.16% and 0.95% Respectively.
 The BSE Sensex ended at 16,498.47 gaining 156.77 points. The NSE Nifty closed at 4,948.90 gaining 50.10 points.
 Stock indices reference seemed to find the rhythm of today, as bargain hunting was seen as the IT stocks that were beaten in the recent collapses.
 Overall trend would be bullish and  market is expected to be open in green in first training session as US market is also expected to be open on green. All sentimental are supporting them. One cannot neglect the fact that the FIIs continue to be net sellers in the Indian share markets. So it would be wise to remain cautious.Nifty has its first resistance level at 4952 and last resistance level at 5025 .
Nifty has its first support level at 4936 and last support level at 4864 .

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

SHORT TERM BUY CALL - FDC

FDC

BSE: 531599    NSE: FDC  CMP : 86.00 . Buy FDC around 85.00 and below levels for a short term one to two months target of 100.00 with a stoploss of 80.00.

STRONG BUY RECOMMENDATION - CESC

CESC

BSE: 500084   NSE: CESC    CMP : 296.00
Company Set UpIn 1978 In Calcutta AsElectric Supply Corporation Then Company New Named CESC In 1987 Who HaveWork Of PowerGeneration AndDistribution In West Bengal. RPG Group Company Equated
Calcutta From Load Roding Then Company Started Lot Of Work LikePower Connection,Fault Free Supply, Fast Response Of Clients Remarks And Billing,Company Have A Plants In Ttiagar, Sadhran And Baj Baj. Company Have23 Lakes Clients When Company Also CertifiedBy ISO-14000 And ISO-9000 For Quality
Management. Company Have Also 975 MVCapacity. Company Will Start Own Projects In
M a h a r a s h t r a ,Jharkhand, West Bengal,Orissa And Bihar Up To2013. Its All Gain Will Take The Company In Future Its Sure. Recently Stock Book Value Is Rs442.03 Who Is Above
From Current MarketRate When Face Value Is Rs 10. Company Recent PE Ratio Is 7.51 Who Is
Below From Industrial PE Ratio 16.82 Percentages. Company Also Shown 38.73 Percentages EPS For
Current Duration.Company Also Gives 40 Percentages Dividend.Last Company Contract
To Buy 37 Million TonCoals For Twenty YearWith Australian Resource Generation.Company Have Also 40
Percentages Holding InIndonesian Mines To Add Up Power Plant Production Capacity.

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST - 23 TUESDAY

Starting with a flat but positive note Indian Markets faced some volatility for a while and indices fell down below the equator. But Market recovered soon and finally closed with a gain over 1%. Nifty after touching a day low of 4808.75 recovered soon as a result of recovery in European markets and Buying interest in Oil and Gas Stocks. Spot Nifty ended up 53 points at 4899. 
Nifty Futures Gained 63.15 points to close at 4914. Now if nifty manages to stay above 4922, it may see some more upside in next trading day. 
For Medium term Nifty futures could be the best option for trading as Nifty may recover up to 5200 soon.
For day Trading one can buy Nifty above 4925 for the targets of 4955-4970 SL below 4885. Below 4869 Sell it for the targets of 4835-4809.

Monday, August 22, 2011

STOCKS IN NEWS FOR THIS WEEK

 After the acquisition of the Chloro Chemicals & Salt works division of Kanoria Chemicals, Aditya Birla Chemicals has
posted a disappointing performance. Scrip may correct 20-30% from hereon.
 At Rs.25, Microsec Financial Services has come down to mouth watering levels. Buy before it shoots up.
 With SBI & ICICI hitting new 52W lows, investors should not get tempted to buy them. Considering the economic
conditions & interest scenario they may fall further 15-20% from hereon.
 Spice Jet has once again corrected sharply providing a good opportunity for long-term investors. Falling crude oil
prices augurs well for the company. Buy & hold it for a couple of years.
 MBL Infra, which posted Q1FY12 EPS of Rs.11, is on its course to register an EPS of Rs.45 in FY12. The share is going
cheap and can fetch decent gains in the medium-term.
Smruthi Organics has posted an EPS of Rs.9 in Q1FY12 and may record an EPS of Rs.38-40 for FY12. Some marketmen
forecast its share price at Rs.250 in the medium-term.
 Gujarat-based Atul Auto manufacturing 3-wheelers is expected to clock an EPS of Rs.22-25 in FY12. The share can be
bought for long-term gains with a target price of Rs.200.
 Repro India, which posted an EPS of Rs.9 in Q1FY12, is all set to post an EPS of Rs.40 in FY12. The share is poised to
touch Rs.200 mark.
 A pharma analyst with a reputed brokerage house recommends Ajanta Pharma with a price target of Rs.400 and
projects an EPS of Rs.60-65 in FY12.
 Morganite Crucibles, a 74% subsidiary of Morganite of UK has registered Q1FY12 EPS of Rs.10 and is expected to post
an EPS of Rs.35-40 for FY12. The share is poised to touch Rs.400.
 LGS Global is expected to click an EPS of Rs.25 in the current fiscal. With a P/E of less than 2, the share is an excellent
buy and is poised to double in one year.
 IDBI Bank shares are being accumulated by some funds in anticipation of its crossing the Rs.140 mark soon. The Bank
is expected to register an EPS of Rs.22 in FY12 and Rs.28 in FY13 and its share is going cheap.

MEDIUM TERM BUY - HITECH GHEARS

Hi-Tech Gears

BSE: 522073   NSE: HITECHGEAR  CMP : 119.00Hi-Tech Gears Limited is an auto component manufacturer. The Company produces engine and transmission components.
Hi-Tech Gears is a good growth bet in small cap auto space. Its currently trading at a P/E of little over 5 with good dividend yields of almost 4% in the last 12 months. Revenues have grown steadily from 269 Crores to 427 Crores in the last 5 years. Profits have picked up strongly from 8 Crores to 35 Crores in the same period aided by NPM growth. NPM has picked up strongly from 3% to over 8% in the last 5 years. It has good strong support at 100 levels. Buy with long term perspective.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST - 22 MONDAY

Indian equities open at 12-14 month lows, today stock market closed on negative note. Nifty continu the down trend. NSE benchmark nifty closed on 4845.65 down by 98.5 or 1.99% and BSE sensex closed on 16141.67 down by 328.12 points or 1.99% BSE Sensex crashed below the key level of 16,000 and hit the day’s low at 15,987.77 and nifty 4792.10
Nifty future closed on 4850.00 down 88.05 points or 1.78% from the previous close. Intraday high 4903.30 and day low 4801.10 for current month.
Nifty future Levels:

Resistance : 4920 and 5000 points.    Support : 4810 and 4760 points. 

Friday, August 19, 2011

MEDIUM TERM BUY - BAJAJ CORP

Bajaj Corp

BSE: 533229    NSE: BAJAJCORP  CMP :  109.00
Strong presence in the fast-growing light hair oil category: Bajaj Corp Ltd (BCL), part of the Shishir Bajaj group, is the third largest player in the hair oil segment and has emerged as the dominant player in the premium light hair oil (LHO) category with its Almond Drops hair oil. Driven by a rise in the disposable income and aspirations of consumers the LHO market has seen a strong growth of 25.5% CAGR in the past four years. With its strong positioning, product differentiation and distribution strength, BCL has grown at a relatively much higher rate and increased its market share in the LHO category from 38% to over 50% in the same period.

Enhancing its product portfolio: Leveraging on its strong presence in the LHO segment and the distribution strength of over 2 million retail outlets, BCL is looking at enhancing its product portfolio through brand extension and introduction of new products. In line with this strategy the company has recently launched Kailash Parbat Cooling Oil (KPCO) in the cooling hair oil category. The initial response has been quite encouraging with KPCO achieving a volume market share of 1% within the first quarter of its launch.

Strong growth momentum to sustain: Despite the hike in the average selling price in response to the rising input cost, BCL was able to report a strong volume growth of 19.9% in Q1FY2012. The company would be able to sustain a healthy double-digit volume growth in its flagship brand, Almond Drops, while the newly introduced KPCO would bring in the incremental growth in volumes. Consequently, we have factored in a 17% compounded annual growth in volume over the next two years.

Attractive valuations: With leadership in the LHO category, BCL is well poised to achieve a good growth in a scenario in which people are climbing up the value chain and consumption in rural India is on the rise. We expect BCL's top line and bottom line to grow at CAGR of 24% and 18% respectively over FY2011-13. It has around Rs400 crore as cash & cash equivalents which provides an opportunity to carry out both organic and inorganic growth activities. The stock is currently trading at 13.7x its FY2012E EPS of Rs8.0 and 11.2x its FY2013E EPS of Rs9.7. Considering the company's good cash generation ability and the better visibility of its earnings over the next two to three years, we believe the stock is trading at a stark discount to some of its FMCG peers.One can buy  at current levels for a medium term target of 150.00.

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST - 19 FRIDAY

Immense cut off was seen in Indian benchmark indices and mrket dripped over 2% on Thursday. Heavy selling was seen in IT and Banking shares due to Global growth concern and weak cues from overseas.
NSE Index Nifty closed below 5000 mark and hit a day low of 4932.32 during last leg of the trading session and closed near the same at 4944.15 down by 112.45 points.
Nifty futures lost 136.65 points and settled at 4931.10 which was 2.68% below its previous close. The market has been trading in oversold territory and a recovery might be seen on Friday session. But still Nifty will have to clear above 5000 mark again to be in bullish momentum. Below 4919 more downfall till 4900-4870 is expected.
Traders are advised to wait till 4965 (day trading) to initiate long positions.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

LONG TERM BUY - GM BREWERIES

GM Breweries

BSE: 507488   NSE: GMBREW   CMP:   96.00
G.M. Breweries Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of alcoholic liquor in India. The company primarily offers whisky, rum, and other liquors.The company is growing steadily and has earned a dedicated customer base. GMBL is the largest manufacturer of country liquor in the state of Maharashtra with a sizeable market share.GMBL is having a state of the art fully automatic Bottling Plant at Virar, District Thane, in the state of Maharashtra with a capacity to produce about 50,000 cases a day. Initially The company started producing 200 cases a day which has now reached to more than 50,000 cases a day.It’s a cash rich company, debt free and the marketcap has been quite low at about Rs 90 crore.The company is expected to post an EPS of about 26 for the present fiscal.So, if you take the present market price of Rs 95, it translates into a PE multiple of less than 4 times, while all other brewery stocks in the same category in the same in the smallcap and midcap have been ruling in a double digit PE multiple.The kind of growth, which is expected from the company in FY11-12, an EPS of Rs 25-26, can get increased to about Rs 35 going forward in FY12-3. So, taking this into consideration, I don’t think that there is any kind of downside because of the debt free status,high promoter stake of 75%, consistent performance, strong presence.Promoters are visionary and should create good wealth for the shareholders in the coming years.A good value buy.

STOCK VIEW - SUMEET INDUSTRIES

Sumeet Industries

BSE: 514211    NSE: SUMEETINDS   CMP: 27.00

Sumeet Industries Limited manufactures and exports yarns, fabrics, and menthol and allied products.
Sumeet Industries is a 164 Crore penny cap stock. Its currently trading at a P/E of 5 with excellent dividend yields of 3.55%. Liabilities are high, but has strong revenue growth. Revenues have grown 8 fold from 112 Crores to 821 Crores in the last 5 years.  Profits have picked up from 3.36 Crores to 30.53 Crores in the last 5 years. NPM has been stable at little below 4%. It has pretty good support at 25 levels. Buy with minimal exposure.

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST - 18 THURSDAY

It was a choppy session for Indian markets which ended with moderate gains. Spot Nifty closed at 5056.60 with a gain of 20.80 points (0.41%).
Nifty Futures shut stop at 5069.70 up by 42 points or 0.84 %. It is looking bearish in the coming trading session if it manages to trade below the support level of 5005 else above resistance level of 5140 it would be in an upward trend.
RESISTANCE: It has first resistance close to the level of 5140 & above this level the next resistance is seen near the 5235 mark.
SUPPORT: It has first support close to the level of 5005 & below this level the next support is seen near 4950 mark

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST - 17 WEDNESDAY


Mid cap and Small dug up the market today and Indian bourses ended in the negative territory due to last hours pull off by institutional investors.
Nifty could manage to stay above 5000 mark and closed at 5035 off its day's low of 5016 after losing 37.15 points from its previous close.
Midcap and small cap stocks were the major responsible stocks for this moderate loss.
Nifty Futures ended at 5040 down by 39.85 points (-0.78%).
The fundamental signals are indicating that the market may face more downfall in coming trading session and If nifty futures breaks 5000 mark on downside, it may further take a dip down to 4950.

RESISTANCE: It has first resistance close to the level of 5140 & above this level the next resistance is seen near the 5235 mark.

SUPPORT: It has first support close to the level of 5000 & below this level the next support is seen near 4950 mark.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

MULTIBAGGER STOCK RECOMMENDATION - CYBELE IND (Q-FLEX)

Cybele Ind. BSE Code : 531472       CMP :  Rs. 14.50
 Financial Performance   (Rs in crores )
                               Qtr. End.         Yr. End.
                               30-6-11           31-3-11
Total Income            5.23                 21.39
Net Profit                 2.44                 7.64
Equity                          --                  10.63
EPS (Rs.)                 2.44                 7.64
Promoter Holdings    72 % 

Formerly known as Q-Flex cables, this Chennai based company was engaged in production of electrical items. However, company was not doing well and incurring losses. Hence, factory was closed down. It led to 10 acre surplus land in Chennai. Now, development of this land in JV with Vijay Shanthi Builders has made big turnaround in its fortunes.Cybele had entered into an agreement with Vijay ShanthiBuilders for development of residential township on this 10 acre surplus land. VijayshanthiBuilders will bear all expenses for development/construction of township called PARK AVENUE. Cybele will be entitled to get 50% of total saleable area as its share. Construction of project has already started. One unlisted company engaged in production of cables has been merged with Cybele which has led to promoter stake increasing to nearly 72% For year ended March 2010, Cybele had achieved EPS of Rs 18.40 From real estate project, total revenues of Cybele should be more than Rs 70 crores in next 2 years time. It works out to nearly Rs 70 pe  share at PBT levels on enlarged equity. For quarter ended July 2011, Cybele has achieved income of 5.23 cr with Pat of 2.44 cr. In this quarter, revenues from real estate division stood at 3.35 cr and cable division contributed 1.90 crores. With profits pouring in from real estate division, performance of cable division should improve significantly in near future.
Although it is difficult to estimate (in fairly accurate manner) earnings of Cybele for current year and next year, yet Cybele should report EPS of AT LEAST Rs 12 in FY12 and EPS of more than Rs 20 in 2012-13
Current market cap is just Rs 15 crores. Buying recommended as scrip can be Rs 35 in next 9-15 months. A low-risk high reward opportunity.

STOCKS IN NEWS FOR THIS WEEK

 Monsanto India is worth considering on cum-bonus basis for medium term rewards opine punters. 
 Knowledgeable circle is cornering shares of Shrenuj & CO. on the hopes of bonus issue that is long overdue. 
Informed buying is seen on the counter of Lakshmi Vilas Bank that has posted robust growth for Q1 of the current fiscal. 
Manappuram Finance is expected to see high volatile trades as its NCD issue round the corner. The company is reportedly faring well and thus generating buying interest from bull operatos. 
Informed circle advices to go long on the counter of India Securities. The company is mulling delisting and buy back offer is round the corner. 
JB Chemical is generating buying interest from short term investors as it is planning a special one time dividend. Would you like to gamble on this? 
Delhi punters recommend CEBBCO. The company is reportedly faring well and might announce some cheering news. 
Mumbai punters expects liberal bonus from Time Techno that is reportedly faring well and is having huge surplus reserves.

MEDIUM TERM PICK - DHANUKA AGRITECH

BSE: 507717   NSE: DHANUKA CMP :103.00
Dhanuka Agritech Ltd. manufactures insecticides, pesticides and other chemicals. The Company has a technical tie-up with M/s E.I. Dupont De Numours & Co., U.S.A. to formulate the product Methomyl 12.5L under brand name "Dunet".


Dhanuka Agritech is a budding small-cap and is a consistent performer. Manageable liabilities and dividend yields close to 2% in the last 12 months. Strong revenue growth from 55 Crores to 407 Crores in the last 5 years. Profits have picked up from 4 Crores to 36 Crores in the last 5 years. NPM has slowly picked up from 7% to 9% over the last 5 years. Its currently trading at a P/E of less than 10 which is attractive. Buy, accumulate on dips and hold.

BUY DHANUS TECHNOLOGIES

Dhanus Technologies

BSE: 532903    NSE: DHANUS  CMP: 12.35 .  Buy dhanus tech around 12.00 for a short term target of 14.40. expected to bonus announcement stock can reach 14.00 in short term.

SHORT TERM BUY - CREBOS , ORCHID CHEM , APTECH

BSE: 524372  NSE: ORCHIDCHEM CMP: 198.00 . buy orchidchem around 196.00 - 197.50 levels for a short term target of 215.00 with a strict stoploss of 190.00

BSE: 532542   NSE: CREWBOS CMP :56.50 .  Buy crewbos around 56.00 and below levels for a short term target of 63.50 with a stoploss of 52.00.

BSE: 532475   NSE: APTECHT  CMP :135.00.  Buy aptech around  134.00  and below levels with a strict stoploss of 128.00 for a short term target of 145.00

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST - 16 TUESDAY

Markets opened the previous week with negative bias amid persistent selling pressure on worries over the global economic crisis after global ratings firm S&P downgraded the US credit worthiness by one notch from AAA to AA+. Investors remained worried over higher interest rates that may dent corporate profit growth. Interest sensitive stocks like auto, housing and reality lost ground on worries over higher interest rates. IT sector suffered the most during the previous week on likely economic slowdown in the US and Europe, the two biggest markets for IT firms. The market failed to recover even on last Friday in spite of higher IIP data, the indices continued its decline for the third consecutive week with the Sensex losing 2.69% or 446 points and the Nifty 2.65% or 138 points and closed the week at 16839 and 5072 respectively. Market participants also seemed worried on concerns that the apex bank may continue its tight monetary policy to tame the rising inflation thereby slowing the pace of economy. Further, markets will be keenly watching the inflation data for July which will be released this week. The readers are advised to trade with caution and keep a watch on global trend.
The counter this week may remain in the range of 4990-5165, break above it may move up to 5215/5248 or else break below it may slide to 4949/4917. For today’s trading the counter to gain strength needs to trade and remain above 5104.75 whereby it may move up to 5122/5153. Strong support for the NF exists at 5055.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slip to 5031/5017.

Sunday, August 14, 2011

                                                        Our life is full of Colors
                                                    I hope this 15th August will

                                                    add more colors to your life
                                                      Happy Independence Day

Thursday, August 11, 2011

SHORT TERM BUY CALL - EROS MEDIA

Eros International Media

BSE: 533261   NSE: EROSMEDIA CMP : 205.45 .  Buy eros media around 204.00 -205.00 levels for a short term target of  232.00 with a stoploss of 196.00.markets  will be highly volatile for coming days, trade in small quantity only and also follow  stoploss strictly on every trade.

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST - 12 FRIDAY

 
The Asian Markets today  11 August managed to overcome the sharp sell-off in the Western Markets last night, and finally closed with marginal cuts. india too moved in tandem and closed in a tight range. The uncertainties in the Global Market still persists. For the time being, as long as Nifty sustains the level of 5000, it is still ok. rather as per the present situation 5000 level is considered to be a safe level to buy for quick gain. below 5000, again the possibility is there for nifty to come down at 4800-4700 levels. In the upper side 5235 is strong resistance of nifty and 5300 is a rock solid resistance which is very difficult to break for the time being. We may expect some pull back rally for the time being, but i think it will not sustain for very long. in a nutshell some selling pressure is being expected near 5300 levels. So the conclusion is, try to make money by means of intraday and also try to keep yourself in green, till the global experts find out some good solutions to get rid of the uncertainties.
Pivot Level = 5145
   nifty levels  for tomorrow  Support1 = 5104 Resistance1 = 5168 Support2 = 5081 Resistance2 = 5209 Support3 = 5040 Resistance3 = 5232

European and US stock markets crash today...again

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Just after a day of relief, worldwide stock markets have started the downward journey again. Dow Jones has fallen more than 500 points today. The reason? European bank crisis is spreading. Watch out for Indian Stock Markets too.
The Dow Jones industrials were down more than 530 points before the close today. Gold has hit December delivery at $1,801 an ounce. This is first time that Gold has crossed $1,800.
The two main concerns were crashing European and especially French bank stocks. The other major concern, weak American economy.
The French banking stocks crashed on worries that there are deep problems within French banking system. French government has proposed to consider new tax increases, spending cuts and other budget measures for deficit reduction.
These developments and crashing European/American stock markets would certainly further destabilize Indian Stock Markets. It would be advisable for long term investors to not to buy stocks at this moment and be in wait and watch mode. Certainly there would be buying opportunities when they can buy good stocks at reasonable valuations

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

STRONG BUY RECOMMENDATION - ARSHIYA INTERNATIONAL

Arshiya International

BSE: 506074    NSE: ARSHIYA  CMP : 133.00

Arshiya International Ltd (AIL), a flagship company of Arshiya group, having a 10 years lineage in logistics, is an integrated supply chain and logistics infrastructure solutions provider headquartered in Mumbai, India. Arshiya International Ltd had taken its initiative to develop India’s first Free Trade Warehousing Zone (FTWZ) at Panvel, Mumbai spanning across 165 acres. AIL has entered into various verticals such as FTWZs, Domestic Distriparks, Rail Business etc.”
Arshiya International Ltd has taken initiative to establish India’s first FTWZ. It started its first FTWZ at Panvel, Mumbai in Nov 2010 spanning across 165 acres. AIL is also in process of setting up second FTWZ at Delhi, followed by Nagpur and two more at South and East. These five FTWZs set up at strategic locations across India will bring about a revolutionary change in the Indian logistics landscape. We expect this segment to generate revenue of Rs. 146 crore and Rs. 512 crore For FY12E and FY13E respectively. 
AIL has planned an investment of Rs. 626 crore for its Rail Infrastructure project, phased over the next two years. Currently company is operating fifteen rakes; AIL plans to expand the rakes to 22 and 30 by FY12E and FY13E respectively. We estimate AIL’s Railway business’s sales to grow at a 36% CAGR in FY11-FY13E.”
“At current market price of Rs. 138-, AIL is trading at P/E of 8.2x and 5.0x of FY12E and FY13E earnings of Rs. 16.8 and 27.8 respectively .  buy at current levels for a medium term target of 195.00 and long term target of 225.00. 

NIFTY LEVELS - INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST - 11 THURSDAY

After six consecutive sessions market was bullish. Market open positive node Nifty trend is consolidate if it manages to trade below the support level of 5070 it downtrend else above 5220 it would be in an upward trend. Today both NSE BSE market closed positive. Both of benchmark loss above 1.60 percent. NSE benchmark nifty closed on 5161.00 up by 88.15 or 1.74% and BSE sensex closed on 17130.51 up by 272.6 points or 1.62% BSE NSE benchmark touch intraday low sensex touch 17022.25 and nifty 5123.35 and market intraday high 17256.46 nifty 5197.95
Nifty future closed on 5148.00 down 64.6 points or 1.27% from the previous close. Intraday high 5223.00 and day low 5118.10 for current month.
Resistance : 5220 and 5290 points.
Support : 5070 and 5010 points.

SHORT TERM BUY CALL - DB REALTY

DB Realty

BSE: 533160      NSE: DBREALTY  CMP : 68.25  . buy db realty below 68.00 levels for a short term target of 80.00 with strict stoploss of  65.00.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

NIFTY LEVELS -INTRADAY TREND ANALYSIS FOR AUGUST 10 - WEDNESDAY

Market open negative node, Today was red day for market because of US and Europe market crisis. Nifty is downward trend. Today both NSE BSE market closed negative. NSE benchmark nifty closed on 5072.85 down by 45.65 or 0.89% and BSE sensex closed on 16857.91 down by 132.27 points or 0.78% NSE benchmark nifty fall below 5000 and touch intraday low 4947.90 and sensex touch 16432.00 and market intraday high 17135.04 nifty 5204.20
Nifty future closed on 5095.60 down 30.6 points or 0.6% from the previous close. Intraday high 5208.00 and day low 5057.30 for current month.

 Nifty future Levels:
Resistance : 5150 and 5230 points.
Support : 5020 and 4960 points.

Nifty hopes rest on FOMC meet, else 4700 is next stop

Turbulence in global markets has thrown Indian equity indices into a tizzy. The result: Huge swings on the bourses for yet another day. Amid acute volatility, the 50-share Nifty managed to cope up from sub-5,000 levels settling at 5,072, down 45 point. The Sensex also yo-yoed to finally closed 132 point lowered at 16,857.

However, considering the heavy turbulence that the market saw following unbelievable volatility globally, today's performance can't be labeled 'bad'. From an India perspective, we will mirror whatever happens globally, Rajiv Anand, managing director and chief executive officer of Axis AMC says. "The Indian story is not being noted; the fact that commodity prices have come down and therefore the macro picture looks much better. Also, input cost are going to go relatively lower, which will lead to the micro company profitability looking much better. I think that is all in the medium to long-term. The market is not distinguishing between commodities, equities and bonds at this point in time," he explains.

In unison David Pezarkar, head of equity at Daiwa Mutual Fund says how the market will perform depends on the situation in the European world and in the US. "What is happening is that people are realising that the long-term growth projections for those economies have taken a deep tumble and the markets there are getting rerated or rather de-rated to that fact," he says.

But will the gash deepen?

According to Outlook's consulting editor Devangshu Datta 4,700-4,800 looks likes a reasonable key support zone. "Somewhere between 4,750 and 4,800 is what the consensus estimate seems to be. Breakevens would be in around 4,690. If you are talking slightly more long-term then we are in a reflexive situation where the market could react much more than is rationally justified," he explains.

However, Pezarkar feels otherwise. Calling the fall over-done, he says we could see some sort of slight bounce back at least in the next few days. "If we hear some bit of good news (from the Fed) tonight, then I think we should see a slight bounce back. Until the re-rating process completes itself and the markets there stabilise, I do not see how our market can really rebound from here.”

On the reversal of trend, Datta sees 5,170-5,225 as the first zone of resistance, followed by 5,325-5,350, which will be the second resistance zone. "If it pulls back to about 5,225, it will probably test 5,325. Also, If the Feds policy meet springs positive surprises, then the market could go to around 5,325-5,350. However, anything above that is quite unlikely," he adds.

Datta is looking at a stop loss in the 5,150-5,200 range. "In fact, possibly I would do something like hold a long 5,300 call or maybe even a 5,400 call. The point being that those are fairly cheap and they would gain considerably if the market jumped 100 points," he points out.

Avoid investing huge amounts as stock market seen nowhere near its bottom, advise experts

Don't jump into the market with a suitcase full of cash as yet, experts warn retail investors, as many seem attracted at the prospect of entering the market after Monday's plunge.

"Suddenly, many investors have become extra brave and want to get into the market because they think every huge fall is a great buying opportunity. But they could be wrong because we are definitely not at the bottom of the market and there would be a lot of volatility in the near term, which the retail investors would find hard to stomach," say Devendra Nevgi, founder & principal Partner, Delta Global Partners.

"They should wait for at least six to eight weeks for a clear picture on the global scenario," he adds. But the advice is meant only for those who want to invest large sums at this point of time in stocks. Existing equity investors should continue with their regular investments like systematic investment plans ( SIPs) in mutual funds, as the long-term prospects of the Indian economy and the stock market is intact, albeit somewhat foggy, say experts.

"Long-term investors can continue to invest in stocks with a three to five-year time frame in mind," says Suresh Sadagopan, chief planner, Ladder7 Financial advisories. "Investors should use this opportunity to build and consolidate their equity portfolio. The current global problems could actually help the Indian markets as lower commodity prices, especially oil prices, could moderate inflation."

"We may also be near the peak interest rates as the Reserve Bank of India may hold rates against the current global backdrop," says A Balasubramanian, CEO, Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund. "With every fall, the valuations of stock are also getting attractive, making a strong case for allocation into equity."

Not surprisingly, investment advisors also want small investors to seriously consider diversifying their portfolio into precious metals, especially gold. Gold is already attracting a lot of investor attention, especially from HNIs, because many consider gold as the best hedge against upheavals in the global economy.

"We have been advocating gold for almost four years now. Investors should seriously consider parking 5-10% of their portfolio in gold, mainly as a hedge against uncertainties," says Nevgi. However, advisors warn investors against going overboard on gold as it could cause problems in the long term.

"I recently came across portfolios of individuals where the exposure to gold is as high as 30-40%. Sure, the prospects of gold look extremely promising, but still there is no reason for you to put all your eggs in one basket," says a wealth manager who declined to be named.

Monthly income plan is another option investors should consider at this point. "MIPs are meant for conservative investors as they invest mostly in debt and take a little exposure to equity. The debt part can unlock value in the near term when the interest rates start falling. Also, the equity valuations are attractive for long-term investment," says Balasubramanian.
"MIPs could prove a win-win situation as prospects for both debt and equity look bright at this point," says Nevgi.

 (source: economic times)